The crystal ball has receipts
Predictions
Numbers first. Confidence second. Excuses after Monday night.
These are scoring-history estimates, not Sleeper player projections. Injuries, NFL byes, weather, and lineup changes are not explicitly modeled. Probabilities describe the model, not guaranteed outcomes. Plain-English method.
Next scoring week: Week 7
Locked 2026-10-14T09:51:36.922886+00:00 using completed results through Week 5. This is the week after the active NFL scoring week, so the receipt is saved before that week begins.
| Team | Projected score | Win probability | Opponent | Projected score | Win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newtons fantasty | 117.40 | 59.8% | City Wok Rions | 109.67 | 40.2% |
| The Dirtiest | 133.99 | 52.8% | balls2thewalls2 | 131.22 | 47.2% |
| Afghan National Team | 144.57 | 57.5% | Killen Kehillah | 137.61 | 42.5% |
| Abominable Snowmen | 152.15 | 67.9% | MauiHowie | 134.37 | 32.1% |
| Newmen | 125.98 | 32.0% | SuckMyPresticles | 140.42 | 68.0% |
| landanss | 122.04 | 41.4% | wcisco | 131.23 | 58.6% |
Rest-of-season simulation
10,000 simulated finishes, using completed results through Week 5. Monte Carlo sampling noise is at most about ±1 percentage point at 95% confidence for 10,000 trials; model error can be much larger.
Model assumes division winners receive seeds 1 and 2, then record/PF/PA; eight teams; rounds in Weeks 13-14, 15-16 and 17-18; fixed bracket. Verify these against commissioner rules.
| Team | Playoffs | Championship | Expected wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abominable Snowmen | 100.0% | 35.6% | 8.9 |
| Afghan National Team | 98.7% | 20.1% | 7.4 |
| SuckMyPresticles | 100.0% | 15.4% | 9.4 |
| Killen Kehillah | 99.0% | 10.8% | 7.8 |
| MauiHowie | 99.9% | 6.7% | 8.5 |
| wcisco | 73.9% | 3.7% | 5.5 |
| The Dirtiest | 52.8% | 3.5% | 4.6 |
| balls2thewalls2 | 44.9% | 2.1% | 4.5 |
| Newmen | 75.5% | 1.5% | 5.9 |
| landanss | 51.4% | 0.7% | 5.1 |
| Cam Newtons fantasty | 3.5% | 0.0% | 2.7 |
| City Wok Rions | 0.5% | 0.0% | 1.8 |
Every seed probability
| Team | Seed 1 | Seed 2 | Seed 3 | Seed 4 | Seed 5 | Seed 6 | Seed 7 | Seed 8 | Seed 9 | Seed 10 | Seed 11 | Seed 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abominable Snowmen | 35.8% | 9.6% | 35.1% | 11.8% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Afghan National Team | 5.0% | 1.9% | 16.5% | 35.7% | 20.8% | 10.7% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| SuckMyPresticles | 38.9% | 8.8% | 32.8% | 12.6% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Killen Kehillah | 6.7% | 32.1% | 6.9% | 14.8% | 21.0% | 10.5% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MauiHowie | 13.3% | 43.5% | 5.9% | 12.8% | 15.1% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| wcisco | 0.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 9.8% | 19.5% | 20.5% | 17.3% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| The Dirtiest | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 10.6% | 16.0% | 19.7% | 19.4% | 19.7% | 7.1% | 1.0% |
| balls2thewalls2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 3.8% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 18.1% | 22.6% | 23.4% | 7.8% | 1.3% |
| Newmen | 0.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 4.2% | 9.8% | 20.5% | 20.7% | 17.4% | 14.1% | 8.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| landanss | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 5.4% | 10.2% | 14.7% | 19.1% | 21.4% | 19.3% | 6.9% | 1.0% |
| Cam Newtons fantasty | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 14.3% | 52.8% | 23.9% |
| City Wok Rions | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 21.4% | 72.4% |
Did we actually call it? Career scoreboard
Only immutable receipts captured before the target active week count. Old games are not backfilled as predictions. Schedule changes are excluded unless the predicted teams actually met. Ties and 50/50 picks are excluded from hit rate; probability error still grades tied outcomes as 0.5. Lower MAE and Brier are better.
No supported results in the saved data yet.